Methodology
Data Source
SafetyBrief uses official crime statistics published by the South African Police Service (SAPS). Data is extracted from the quarterly Excel spreadsheets released on the SAPS website, which contain station-level crime counts for all police precincts in South Africa.
Each quarterly file includes monthly breakdowns for the current quarter across five consecutive years. We aggregate these into annual totals aligned with the SAPS fiscal year (April to March).
Crime Rate Calculation
Crime rates are expressed per 100,000 population, the international standard for comparing crime across areas of different sizes. The formula is:
Province populations use Stats SA mid-year population estimates. Station-level populations are estimated using Census 2022 district municipality populations divided evenly among police stations in each SAPS district. Since SAPS districts map closely to Stats SA district municipalities, this provides reasonable per-station estimates — though they remain approximations, as population is not evenly distributed across stations within a district.
Safety Scores
Each police precinct receives a safety score from 0 to 100 and a letter grade (A through F). The score is based on the precinct's total crime rate relative to the national average:
| Grade | Score Range | Label | Crime Rate vs National Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 80-100 | Very Safe | Less than 50% of average |
| B | 65-79 | Safe | 50-70% of average |
| C | 50-64 | Moderate | 70-110% of average |
| D | 35-49 | High Risk | 110-180% of average |
| F | 0-34 | Very High Risk | Over 180% of average |
Crime Categories
SAPS reports 37 individual crime categories grouped into five major groups: Contact Crimes (crimes against the person), Contact-Related Crimes, Property-Related Crimes, Other Serious Crimes, and Crimes Detected by Police Action.
It is important to note that “crimes detected by police action” (drug-related crime, illegal firearms, driving under influence) reflect police activity levels as much as underlying crime rates. An increase in these figures may indicate more active policing rather than more crime.
Limitations
- Under-reporting: Only crimes reported to SAPS are captured. The Stats SA Victims of Crime Survey consistently shows that 40-60% of crimes go unreported.
- Population estimates: Station-level populations are based on Census 2022 district municipality data and are approximations. Province-level rates use official Stats SA estimates and are more reliable.
- Precinct vs suburb: Police precincts do not map exactly to suburban boundaries. One precinct may serve multiple suburbs, or parts of multiple precincts may overlap a single suburb.
- Data lag: SAPS data is released with a delay of approximately 6-8 weeks after each quarter. Annual figures reflect the fiscal year (April to March), not the calendar year.
- COVID-19 impact: The 2020 and 2021 figures were significantly affected by lockdown restrictions, making year-on-year comparisons for those years unreliable.